The planning gap
The intended mix and the real one
Most leadership teams know the mix they want across the three horizons: defend and extend the core (Horizon 1), build emerging businesses (Horizon 2) and create options for the future (Horizon 3). Each horizon needs its own funding logic and its own measures. Fewer teams know the mix they actually have, because it is set by many smaller decisions across the year.
Most of those decisions favor the core, because that is where the urgent problems are. A competitor moves, a key platform needs work, and the core needs more, now. That is legitimate; the core pays for everything else. But the people who respond are often the same architects, data specialists and product managers building the next business.
Emerging businesses sit in between: real investment and real teams, with results still some way off, which makes them the easiest place to find money when budgets tighten. Future options vanish the first time capacity gets tight if they were never in the plan. Nobody decides to starve the future. It happens one urgent request at a time.